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累積的壓力要怎麼排解?美研究:大哭一場不只紓壓還可瘦身

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019-10-14 21:11:57
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  累積的壓力要怎麼排解?美研究:大哭一場不只紓壓還可瘦身

  

  

Capital outflows may crimp forex reserves#『标』『题』『分』『割』#Nation'sforeignexchangeholdingsdropby.6bfromJanuarytoAprilChina's.12trillionforeignexchangereservemayfurtherdeclineunderthepressureofcapitaloutflows,saidexperts,predictingastrongerU.S.dollarsupportedbytheFed'spossibleinterestratehikeinJune.Thenation'sforeignexchangereserves,whichwereusedasacurrencydefensewhentheyuansufferedstrongdepreciationpressuretwoyearsago,hasdropped.6billionfromJanuarytoApril,after12monthsofgrowthsinceFebruary2017,accordingtodatafromthecentralbank.DuetothecontinuallystrengtheningU.S.dollar,onMonday,theonshoreChineseyuan'sspotexchangeratehititslowestlevelsinceJan23to6.3888perdollar,andtheoffshoreyuandeclinedby150pointstolowerthan6.38onthesametradingday.The10-yearU.S.Treasuryyields,whichusuallyhaveapositivecorrelationwiththeU.S.dollarandtheFederalfundsrate,exceeded3.1percentlastweek,upfrom2.8percentamonthearlier,thehighestlevelsinceMay2011,whichhassparkedturbulenceinsomeemergingmarketsincludingArgentinaandTurkey.Regionalfinancialvulnerabilityisemergingasthoseemergingeconomiesincreasedinterestratestodealwithsurgingcapitaloutflows,resultingindebtriskexposure.ZhouXiaochuan,formergovernorofthePeople'sBankofChina,thecentralbank,warnedhissuccessorsinaspeechattheweekend"tokeepacloseeyeonwhatwillhappennext"ifthe10-yearU.S.Treasuryyieldscontinuetoriseandthedollar'sstrengthwanes.Heespeciallymentionedthatfinancialvulnerabilitycouldbestimulatedbycapitaloutflowsinemergingeconomies,especiallythosethathavelargedebts."Theinteractiveimpactofsmall-probabilityeventscouldleadtosignificantresults,"hesaid.TheChina-U.S.interestratedifferentialisusuallyseenasoneofthekeyfactorsinfluencingthepaceanddirectionofcross-bordercapitalflows.AhigherU.S.interestratewillattractmorecapitalintoitscapitalmarketseekinghigherinvestmentreturns.Theinterestrategapwasabout90basispointsinAprilwhenChinesecentralbankGovernorYiGangidentifieditwasin"acomfortablerange"forbalancedcapitalflows.Nowthegaphasfallento60basispoints."Ifthereweremajorfundoutflowsandexcessivemarketvolatility,thecentralbankcouldbepressuredtohikelocalinterestratestosupportthecurrencyandavertundermininginvestorconfidence,"saidJonathanCornish,ananalystwiththeglobalcreditratingsagencyFitchRatings.Butanylocalrateincreasecouldpressuretheassetqualityofdomesticenterprisesandincreasefundingcosts,especiallygiventhecurrenthighlevelofprivate-sectorcreditinChina,althoughthePBOChasrespondedtorecentFedhikes,accordingtoCornish,whopredictedtheFed'sfundratetobe2.50percentattheyearendand3.25percentby2019.PedroMartins,chiefemergingmarketsequitystrategistandheadofLatAmEquityResearchwithJPMorgan,predictedthatU.S.policyratesshouldgraduallymoveupwardwithintwoyears,andthecentralbankbalancesheetnormalizationwilllikelyresultinrisinglong-termratesovertimeinemergingmarkets."Thereislimitedroomforfurthersovereignspreadcompressionacrossemergingmarkets,"hesaid."Thedriversbehindemergingmarkets'economicgrowtharegrowinglargeandincludeasolidpickupinglobaltradefuelingmorebenignemergingmarketdynamicsviaasustainedriseinprivatesectorconfidenceandthecreditimpulseturningpositiveforthefirsttimesince2014."『 』『 』

  

『第』『二』『个』『是』『“』『精』『”』『,』『沿』『江』『村』『有』5『公』『里』『的』『沿』『江』『线』『,』『一』『路』『过』『来』『让』『人』『过』『目』『不』『忘』『,』『很』『精』『致』『。』『 』『 』『周』『志』『军』『(』『天』『心』『区』『委』『常』『委』『、』『常』『务』『副』『区』『长』『)』『 』『 』『建』『设』『魅』『力』『南』『托』『核』『心』『要』『靠』『“』『人』『”』『 』『 』『魅』『力』『南』『托』『的』『内』『涵』『是』『什』『么』『?』『我』『觉』『得』『魅』『力』『南』『托』『的』『内』『涵』『:』『一』『是』『美』『丽』『南』『托』『,』『二』『个』『是』『实』『力』『南』『托』『,』『三』『是』『幸』『福』『南』『托』『。』


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